Will this chicanery of the Federal Reserve end badly? They are doing what they used to tell banana republics not to do — trying to dig yourself out of a financial hole by printing money. It worked 10 years ago, but will it work this time, on a much bigger scale? If the markets ever begin to doubt it, then all hell breaks loose. It’s a credibility game. Belief can crumble quickly — virtually overnight. One day you have total faith in them, the next none.
Worse Case Scenario
Worse case scenario for US, should it happen, would be a breakdown in social order where the gangs are now in charge of the streets. That could happen with a total economic collapse. Something like that happened toward the end of the Weimar Republic. The streets in Germany were no longer controlled by the “authorities.”
Stock Market Collapse?
Keep an eye on the 10 year Treasury. If that goes down to zero interest or below, then a stock market collapse is imminent. I think it may happen when all the enthusiasm about going back to work backfires as investors realize that it ain’t going to be like it was before, and the economy going forward is going to be weak and subpar. That’s when the shit hits the fan.
Right now, speculators are basking in all the Federal Reserve money printing. The stock market is highly speculative and often not very realistic, but the bond market is always very tough minded and shrewd. The bond market will realize first that going back to work ain’t working out very well. That’s when everyone will pile into Treasuries and out of stocks, and we could see another October 29th.
If the 10 year Treasury goes to zero interest, you will have been warned.
No More Recessions
So the issue now is really can the Federal Reserve just not allow recessions to happen by printing a blizzard of money? Notice the obvious severe dichotomy that is taking place. The US economy and to a large extent the world economy are almost totally shut down, but stock markets are going back to all-time highs.
Israeli/Palestinian Conflict
Trump-initiated plan for settlement of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict — will it be successful? Time will tell.
What Did He Know and When Did He Know It?
There’s a lot of idle sniping at President Trump relative to how his administration has handled the virus. Much of this comes down to cheap shots by political opponents who don’t pay much attention to the niceties of how things were at any given point in time.
What is very clear in retrospect is that Trump closed our border to the Chinese very early on, way back at the end of January, when it was just a few bare weeks from the date when it was first discovered that something malevolent was happening in China — despite the efforts of their communist government to conceal this fact. Sadly, we have suffered almost 100k death so far, but could that have been 300k by now had Trump not acted as swiftly as he in fact did act relative to closing down entry to Chinese?
As to what subsequently happened, I remember very vividly my flight back to Boston from Atlanta on March 16th. On that particular airline, there were exactly 2 people, on the entire jet airplane, wearing masks. And there weren’t many masks being worn at the Atlanta airport or in Boston at Logan either. Masks then were so rare that it was still a bit of a shock to see someone wearing one as of mid-March. I can attest to that.
And when I finally did get back to my PC and Internet access in my apartment, all the chatter among the scientists and smart set, in mid-March, was whether this was really even a pandemic or not — given the relatively modest number of those infected outside of China. The other much debated subject at the time, again as of mid-March, was whether one should be wearing a mask or not. The experts were divided on that one as well.
All of that indecision and confusion by the cognoscenti — the people who should have known better but clearly didn’t — came to an abrupt end at the end of March with the explosion of a hot spot in northern Italy. That the virus had taken on a virulent character beyond the borders of China meant that the Genii was out of the bottle, and everyone was now at risk. Trump’s reaction was to close entry to Europeans and ultimately to England, just as he had closed entry to the Chinese.
Again, while the scientists/academics dithered, Trump acted. Had he not closed the border to Europe as a response to what was happening in Italy, would our death toll now be 400k — or more? I think so.
Presidential Virus?
Both candidates, age-wise, are perfect victims for this virus.
Have Fallen in Love Again
I’ve fallen in love again, but this time not with a person, but with sweet bell peppers. Love the taste both cooked and raw. Use them in virtually everything now.
Jumping Into A Puddle
If people don’t start to go back to work soon, despite the obvious risk, we are going to be looking at a depression with a capital “D”. Damned if you do; damned if you don’t. Sometimes in life there are no good choices but you still have to decide, like that famous photograph by Cartier-Bresson of a man jumping into a puddle.
Green Peas
Green peas have a super wide range of the micronutrients and all the essential amino acids. They are high in three nutrients which pose a problem for vegans: lysine, leucine, and choline. If you are vegan, you would do well to add them to your daily diet.
Henry's Views 