Afghanistan — What It Tells You

What the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban tells you about the limits of American power is that we can’t change the ethos of other countries — that is well beyond our capability. We can’t take a deeply conservative, male-oriented, and archly Islamic country and make it over into our image of a Western democracy with equal rights for everyone and freedom of religion. And we shouldn’t try to. It’s bound to fail.

They are all now blaming Biden for this defeat, but, to be honest, he was a very late player in this comedy of errors. The initial error was to expand our enemies list from al-Qaeda to the Taliban. The Taliban never attacked the US; al-Qaeda did.

Another Vietnam?

Lunatics in Charge

Biden has Kerry and Rice back in his White House. These were the two knuckleheaded masterminds of the “Peace in Our Time” deal with Iran. They took a page from Reagan but altered it a bit — “Trust but no verify,” as they were in such a hurry to get a deal — any deal — with Iran. Just like Chamberlain at Munich. So we are going to have lunatics in charge of our foreign policy again, if you can call it that.

And of course Biden is in bed with the Chinese, perhaps even financially benefiting from Chinese companies. But then you know that for career politicians, graft is just considered their retirement benefit. So back to the “policy” of doing things that benefit China but undermine the US — because the Rust Belt isn’t big enough yet.

First Real Test for Biden

Munich Agreement

War What Ifs

What if, simultaneously, NK invades SK and China invades Taiwan. What would the US do, led by a Biden administration soft on — and I would say naive about — China?

A NK invasion of SK would require the use of tactical nuclear weapons by the US to deter it (no way the US would send a large army into SK nor would there be enough time to mobilize and do that). But I don’t see the Biden administration willing to use tactical nuclear weapons. Same situation (need for the use of tactical nuclear weapons) with an invasion of Taiwan, which might actually be triggered by a successful first invasion by NK of SK because it would then embolden China — China would conclude that the US was actually a paper tiger and so not to be feared in their takeover of Taiwan. So the first invasion would lead to the second.

The lesson taught by history at Munich that led to the outbreak of a world war is simply that if one side is perceived to not be willing to protect it sphere of influence, that condition invites aggression by the other side.

Consider this: two such successful invasions would mean that the American sphere of influence in Asia would collapse. Japan, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, and all of southeastern Asia would all become dominated by China because none of these nations would any longer trust the American defense. China would become the uncontested power throughout all of Asia. Therefore, what is obvious is that China would have a tremendous amount to be gained from a successful takeover of Taiwan — a much greater gain than just that takeover, i.e., a sphere of influence extending throughout all of Asia. Therefore, one should not dismiss a Taiwan invasion as unlikely — it is much more likely than not, imo.

These two situations — the status of both SK and Taiwan — have been simmering, tittering on the edge, and unresolved now for decades.

America Coming Apart?

Russia/China Alliance

The dogmatic anti-Putin American press, spurred on by the Democratic Party for purely political reasons, is driving the Russians into the arms of the Chinese.  Smart?  I think not.

Because of the sham Russian-collusion charge against Trump, he is kind of hemmed in relative to initiating a more conciliatory approach to Russia, which could counter such an alliance so unfavorable to the US.  But if he attempts that, that would tend to substantiate the allegation, so he won’t.

So the net result of all of this is that we face a much more formidable alliance now forming between democratic and Christian Russia (it does hold elections, and is no longer communist, by the way) and a totalitarian China — two very dissimilar countries whose only shared interest is the hostility of the US and therefore the menace of the US military.

This could have all been avoided.

My Story