Seems to be escalating rhetoric over the issue of China taking over Taiwan — escalating rhetoric on both sides, including some war talk coming out of Australia.

What makes this situation different now is that China may calculate the Biden administration is a paper tiger, and that calculation might induce them to act. They wouldn’t have make that assumption with Trump.

What a black swan an invasion of Taiwan would be, despite the issue being a real one now for decades! The “surprise” that everyone saw coming — eventually.

If there were an invasion of Taiwan by China, what would that circumstance induce North Korea to do?


Terrible At Governing

Democrats are almost a year in office, with control of both houses, and still haven’t passed the infrastructure bill that everyone, including all Republicans, wanted.

The bonanza bill to spend money on “clean energy” boondoggles will require huge increases in taxes and result in vast government waste on projects with little chance of actually affecting climate change or energy production — a case of government deluding itself into thinking that it can change our use of fossil fuels, for they haven’t admitted to themselves that the alternative sources of clean energy like solar and wind will never really amount to much percentage-wise. That’s the hard reality. Currently, all the renewable energy sources produce a mere 12% of total US energy consumption. I suppose that could eventually get to a whopping (sarcastic here) 15%.

Has anyone asked the question whether we really need to send our 3 and 4 year-olds to school? Whether this is really in our and their best interest? It smacks me of robbing toddlers of their carefree childhood.

The one idea that the Democrats have put forward that has real merit is the required 15% percent minimum tax on corporations. Long overdue that the government put a stop to corporations that make billions paying no taxes because they have an army of tax attorneys who can game the system.

So what have been the real downsides. We have a government that incentivizes illegal immigration. Our border with Mexico is chaos. We have witnessed a terrible exit from Afghanistan that encourages all our adversaries to see the US as a paper tiger. We now have a government that offers Europe no barrier to dumping steel and aluminum into the US — back to Democratic policies that lead to a rust belt in the US and loss of jobs, all for the sake of “free” trade that ultimately corrodes our economy. In other words, relative to trade policies, the Democrats have learned nothing.

US Energy Consumption by Type of Energy

Afghanistan — What It Tells You

What the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban tells you about the limits of American power is that we can’t change the ethos of other countries — that is well beyond our capability. We can’t take a deeply conservative, male-oriented, and archly Islamic country and make it over into our image of a Western democracy with equal rights for everyone and freedom of religion. And we shouldn’t try to. It’s bound to fail.

They are all now blaming Biden for this defeat, but, to be honest, he was a very late player in this comedy of errors. The initial error was to expand our enemies list from al-Qaeda to the Taliban. The Taliban never attacked the US; al-Qaeda did.

Another Vietnam?

Lunatics in Charge

Biden has Kerry and Rice back in his White House. These were the two knuckleheaded masterminds of the “Peace in Our Time” deal with Iran. They took a page from Reagan but altered it a bit — “Trust but no verify,” as they were in such a hurry to get a deal — any deal — with Iran. Just like Chamberlain at Munich. So we are going to have lunatics in charge of our foreign policy again, if you can call it that.

And of course Biden is in bed with the Chinese, perhaps even financially benefiting from Chinese companies. But then you know that for career politicians, graft is just considered their retirement benefit. So back to the “policy” of doing things that benefit China but undermine the US — because the Rust Belt isn’t big enough yet.

First Real Test for Biden

Munich Agreement

War What Ifs

What if, simultaneously, NK invades SK and China invades Taiwan. What would the US do, led by a Biden administration soft on — and I would say naive about — China?

A NK invasion of SK would require the use of tactical nuclear weapons by the US to deter it (no way the US would send a large army into SK nor would there be enough time to mobilize and do that). But I don’t see the Biden administration willing to use tactical nuclear weapons. Same situation (need for the use of tactical nuclear weapons) with an invasion of Taiwan, which might actually be triggered by a successful first invasion by NK of SK because it would then embolden China — China would conclude that the US was actually a paper tiger and so not to be feared in their takeover of Taiwan. So the first invasion would lead to the second.

The lesson taught by history at Munich that led to the outbreak of a world war is simply that if one side is perceived to not be willing to protect it sphere of influence, that condition invites aggression by the other side.

Consider this: two such successful invasions would mean that the American sphere of influence in Asia would collapse. Japan, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, and all of southeastern Asia would all become dominated by China because none of these nations would any longer trust the American defense. China would become the uncontested power throughout all of Asia. Therefore, what is obvious is that China would have a tremendous amount to be gained from a successful takeover of Taiwan — a much greater gain than just that takeover, i.e., a sphere of influence extending throughout all of Asia. Therefore, one should not dismiss a Taiwan invasion as unlikely — it is much more likely than not, imo.

These two situations — the status of both SK and Taiwan — have been simmering, tittering on the edge, and unresolved now for decades.

America Coming Apart?