Avoiding Nuclear War

The world glides silently toward nuclear war over Taiwan. The unthinkable has reality precisely because everyone dismisses it as unthinkable, yet China is adamant about Taiwan, as the US is adamant about its defense.

But nuclear war over Taiwan is not in anyone’s interest – not China’s or the US or Taiwan. It would mean the end of our civilization and a new dark-ages for mankind.

So what is to be done? How can this inevitable war and tragedy be avoided? The answer lies in the type of diplomacy exercised by the British over the control of Hong Kong — a gradual lending of hegemony to China as the dominant power over a number of years.

An administrative unit is set up over Taiwan that consists of 5 votes. Initially, 4 votes are controlled by Taiwanese and 1 vote by the Chinese. But, it is agreed at the onset, that at 10 years into this administration, the ratio changes to 3 Taiwanese to 2 Chinese, and after the 20th year, the final tally is 2 votes Taiwanese to 3 Chinese. China assumes majority control, yet the Taiwanese retain some degree of influence over their own government.

And the world avoids Armageddon, which today is inevitable if nothing is done to avoid it.

That is called diplomacy, an art rarely practiced but desperately needed.

Taiwan

Taiwan

Seems to be escalating rhetoric over the issue of China taking over Taiwan — escalating rhetoric on both sides, including some war talk coming out of Australia.

What makes this situation different now is that China may calculate the Biden administration is a paper tiger, and that calculation might induce them to act. They wouldn’t have make that assumption with Trump.

What a black swan an invasion of Taiwan would be, despite the issue being a real one now for decades! The “surprise” that everyone saw coming — eventually.

If there were an invasion of Taiwan by China, what would that circumstance induce North Korea to do?

Embarrassing

Taiwan?

Is Taiwan going to be the next world-wide black-swan event? China may consider Biden a weakling and act militarily against Taiwan. They may consider Biden’s election their opportunity to take back this troublesome island. It could be over in just a matter of days, should they act. But it would send shock waves around the world, and send all the stock markets into freefall. A successful invasion of the island by China might, in turn, prompt North Korea to act against South Korea. None of this would ever occur under Trump.

Stock Market

War What Ifs

What if, simultaneously, NK invades SK and China invades Taiwan. What would the US do, led by a Biden administration soft on — and I would say naive about — China?

A NK invasion of SK would require the use of tactical nuclear weapons by the US to deter it (no way the US would send a large army into SK nor would there be enough time to mobilize and do that). But I don’t see the Biden administration willing to use tactical nuclear weapons. Same situation (need for the use of tactical nuclear weapons) with an invasion of Taiwan, which might actually be triggered by a successful first invasion by NK of SK because it would then embolden China — China would conclude that the US was actually a paper tiger and so not to be feared in their takeover of Taiwan. So the first invasion would lead to the second.

The lesson taught by history at Munich that led to the outbreak of a world war is simply that if one side is perceived to not be willing to protect it sphere of influence, that condition invites aggression by the other side.

Consider this: two such successful invasions would mean that the American sphere of influence in Asia would collapse. Japan, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, and all of southeastern Asia would all become dominated by China because none of these nations would any longer trust the American defense. China would become the uncontested power throughout all of Asia. Therefore, what is obvious is that China would have a tremendous amount to be gained from a successful takeover of Taiwan — a much greater gain than just that takeover, i.e., a sphere of influence extending throughout all of Asia. Therefore, one should not dismiss a Taiwan invasion as unlikely — it is much more likely than not, imo.

These two situations — the status of both SK and Taiwan — have been simmering, tittering on the edge, and unresolved now for decades.

America Coming Apart?