The world glides silently toward nuclear war over Taiwan. The unthinkable has reality precisely because everyone dismisses it as unthinkable, yet China is adamant about Taiwan, as the US is adamant about its defense.
But nuclear war over Taiwan is not in anyone’s interest – not China’s or the US or Taiwan. It would mean the end of our civilization and a new dark-ages for mankind.
So what is to be done? How can this inevitable war and tragedy be avoided? The answer lies in the type of diplomacy exercised by the British over the control of Hong Kong — a gradual lending of hegemony to China as the dominant power over a number of years.
An administrative unit is set up over Taiwan that consists of 5 votes. Initially, 4 votes are controlled by Taiwanese and 1 vote by the Chinese. But, it is agreed at the onset, that at 10 years into this administration, the ratio changes to 3 Taiwanese to 2 Chinese, and after the 20th year, the final tally is 2 votes Taiwanese to 3 Chinese. China assumes majority control, yet the Taiwanese retain some degree of influence over their own government.
And the world avoids Armageddon, which today is inevitable if nothing is done to avoid it.
That is called diplomacy, an art rarely practiced but desperately needed.
Is Taiwan going to be the next world-wide black-swan event? China may consider Biden a weakling and act militarily against Taiwan. They may consider Biden’s election their opportunity to take back this troublesome island. It could be over in just a matter of days, should they act. But it would send shock waves around the world, and send all the stock markets into freefall. A successful invasion of the island by China might, in turn, prompt North Korea to act against South Korea. None of this would ever occur under Trump.
Should China pay other countries reparations for the economic consequences of the Coronavirus, the so-called “China virus”?
What if, simultaneously, NK invades SK and China invades Taiwan. What would the US do, led by a Biden administration soft on — and I would say naive about — China?
A NK invasion of SK would require the use of tactical nuclear weapons by the US to deter it (no way the US would send a large army into SK nor would there be enough time to mobilize and do that). But I don’t see the Biden administration willing to use tactical nuclear weapons. Same situation (need for the use of tactical nuclear weapons) with an invasion of Taiwan, which might actually be triggered by a successful first invasion by NK of SK because it would then embolden China — China would conclude that the US was actually a paper tiger and so not to be feared in their takeover of Taiwan. So the first invasion would lead to the second.
The lesson taught by history at Munich that led to the outbreak of a world war is simply that if one side is perceived to not be willing to protect it sphere of influence, that condition invites aggression by the other side.
Consider this: two such successful invasions would mean that the American sphere of influence in Asia would collapse. Japan, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, and all of southeastern Asia would all become dominated by China because none of these nations would any longer trust the American defense. China would become the uncontested power throughout all of Asia. Therefore, what is obvious is that China would have a tremendous amount to be gained from a successful takeover of Taiwan — a much greater gain than just that takeover, i.e., a sphere of influence extending throughout all of Asia. Therefore, one should not dismiss a Taiwan invasion as unlikely — it is much more likely than not, imo.
These two situations — the status of both SK and Taiwan — have been simmering, tittering on the edge, and unresolved now for decades.
America Coming Apart?
What would be interesting is if, at some point in this century, the government in China took on more democratic leanings. I’m not holding my breath, though. China with its history of having emperors falls naturally into the communist and totalitarian framework, that is, total control by a centralized government that suffers little influence from purely popular opinion.
So one has to consider what is the downside to such a government. What comes to mind immediately is the Stalinist repression that took place when Stalin became this hyper-paranoid leader. Then it was routine for people and whole families to simply disappear in the night, never to be seen or heard from again — erased from existence. We are already seeing something like this in the treatment by the Chinese government of everything Islamic — their “re-education centers” look strikingly like concentration camps to Westerners.
The good news about totalitarian regimes is that they can impose strict control quickly, and this pays off in terms of controlling such things as pandemics or re-directing a national economy in an entirely different direction. Witness the miracle of the Chinese economy in the last two decades, which has brought so many Chinese out of dire poverty into clear prosperity, but at what cost to their personal freedom, one might ask?
If the current totalitarian regime were really smart, it would create some kind of democratic vehicle, if only to stay abreast of current popular sentiment, so that it might be in a position to ameliorate such sentiment if it were headed in a dangerous direction. The ancient Roman government was tightly controlled by its Senate, but the Romans were smart enough to give a voice to popular opinion through Tribunes. Will China emulate this practice at some point in this century? That would be wise and exhibit flexibility, and as we are taught in Taoism, flexible things last, while rigid things, inevitably, crack and crumble.
China is emerging first from this coronavirus pandemic, and so will leap forward ahead of the rest of us economically. They benefit who caused this curse.
About time the US government showed some support for the freedom fighters in Hong Kong. Long overdue.
Consequences for China
Our NBA and China…US corporations are not the only ones in bed with their Communist Party. Interesting to me that our left wingers in the US never say anything negative about the government in China — a totalitarian dictatorship that imposes its will ruthlessly. But not a peep out our so-called liberals, despite the fact that the Chinese Commies are busy crushing any liberty/freedom out of Hong Kong. I guess Chinese lives DON’T matter.
NBA and China
Ban it in the United States. Definitely.
Playing the Victim
There should be real consequences for China. One idea I read was creating a consortium of countries, all of whom default on all their government bonds owned by China. That would be a little over one trillion for the US.
Break With China