Keep an eye on the 10 year Treasury. If that goes down to zero interest or below, then a stock market collapse is imminent. I think it may happen when all the enthusiasm about going back to work backfires as investors realize that it ain’t going to be like it was before, and the economy going forward is going to be weak and subpar. That’s when the shit hits the fan.
Right now, speculators are basking in all the Federal Reserve money printing. The stock market is highly speculative and often not very realistic, but the bond market is always very tough minded and shrewd. The bond market will realize first that going back to work ain’t working out very well. That’s when everyone will pile into Treasuries and out of stocks, and we could see another October 29th.
If the 10 year Treasury goes to zero interest, you will have been warned.