Author: Henry Barnard

I am a voracious reader and also enjoy writing. I often have a very different point of view than the popular one. I do see value in debate, and thought it might add to the public debate on controversial issues if I were to express my contrarian opinions. I also started keeping my poems recently (I've written little pieces my whole adult life but never kept any); and I've been a photographer now for over 25 years. So I will be adding an occasional poem and hopefully interesting photograph to the blog along the way, just to spice things up.

Success?

Dems in charge destroy jobs and undermine the economy with their actions, and then call it a success. Nixing the Canadian pipeline costs 70k jobs. Raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour nation-wide means that many employers will simply cut the requisite number of jobs in order to protect their profit margins, particularly in states with a lower cost of living. In other words, more jobs destroyed because of unintended consequences. The Dems don’t care; they call this success.

We have lunatics in charge who do not consider the ramifications of their ideological actions. Hard times are coming…hard times for sure.

Expect More Crime with Biden

Taiwan?

Is Taiwan going to be the next world-wide black-swan event? China may consider Biden a weakling and act militarily against Taiwan. They may consider Biden’s election their opportunity to take back this troublesome island. It could be over in just a matter of days, should they act. But it would send shock waves around the world, and send all the stock markets into freefall. A successful invasion of the island by China might, in turn, prompt North Korea to act against South Korea. None of this would ever occur under Trump.

Stock Market

I Don’t Think So

I don’t think there is systemic racism.

I don’t believe white people are evil.

I don’t think people younger than 60 should refrain from going back to work.

I don’t think we should suppress the use of fossil fuels and ruin our economy.

I don’t think the Chinese government is benign.

I don’t think Russia is the bogeyman.

I don’t think suppressing “hate speech” is a better or viable substitute for freedom of speech and the 1st Amendment.

I don’t think groupthink is better than individualism.

I don’t think open borders is a good idea.

I don’t think you accept immigrants as citizens without vetting them for criminal behavior, infectious diseases, and terrorism.

I don’t think this last presidential election was honest and above board.

I don’t think over half the country supports this new administration in Washington, but that a sizeable portion of the country sees this recent presidential election as a fraud.

I don’t think your vote matters anywhere near as much as who counts the votes.

I don’t think a majority of conservatives in the American public agrees with the goals propagated by the Left and the universities.

I don’t think Biden’s son’s influence-peddling was anything other than graft.

I don’t think the liberal press is anything other than distorted ideology.

I don’t think you impeach a former president after he leaves office.

I don’t think you impeach a former president because of a popular demonstration protesting a rigged election.

I don’t think all the money printing by the Federal Reserve is going to end well.

I don’t think our fiat currency in dollars has much value anymore.

I don’t think government by massive deficit spending is viable long term.

I don’t think our current economy is anything other than crony capitalism, thanks to the money-printing Federal Reserve as well as bale outs by the government.

I don’t think socialism is a viable economic system or produces any real value.

I don’t think the anti-business Biden administration is going to tackle the dismal unemployment situation and restore the economy.

I don’t think raising the minimum wage across the entire country is going to help create jobs — I think it will do the opposite, as employers reduce staff to compensate, particularly in states with a lower cost of living.

I don’t think the future is going to be bright.

I don’t think life in the US is going to be peaceful in the future.

Decline

Hedging Naked Calls with Stocks

You sell a naked call on a stock trading at 50 for a 45-day April call at strike price 65. The stock price starts to shoot up immediately and half way to April expiration, the stock price is already at 60, and naturally your call price is way under water. So you start to hedge with 25 shares of the stock. You add 50s shares at 62 and then the final 25 shares at 64.50, so now your naked call is covered.

But the stock price continues to move much higher, all the way to 75 a week before expiration. Now the 100 shares are showing a nice profit, but you need them to cover the April 65 call at expiration. But do you?

What if you rolled the April call at 65 all the way to the LEAPS 85 call at break even on the roll. That gives you a new 10 dollar leeway on this new naked call at 85, which you would again hedge by buying the stock, if need be. Although this tactic creates a lot of time exposure, if you do it, it would allow you to sell your 100 shares and take the profit ($1287) on the stock now that the price has sharply risen to 75, and it may be that the new naked call way up at the lofty price at 85 is a bridge too far for the stock to ever reach, despite the 8-month exposure, given its recent sharp rise.

Would you take that bet? You don’t get paid for not taking risk. If you don’t take the bet, you forgo the $1287 profit on the 100 shares, and merely walk away with the premium on the 65 call after the shares are called away — comparatively little to show for your trade, although now you are risk free, which is a positive. But if you do take the bet, you get the $1287, and if the stock fails to reach 85, you get to keep the premium as well — or the same scenario may play out on the 85 naked call.

Covering Naked Calls

Swamp Won

The swamp takes back Washington. Discouraging.

What can one expect? Much higher taxes on the wealthy but also the middle class…and corporations. Many looney-climate change initiatives that damage the economy because they undermine the use of fossil fuels, which underpin all economic activity. Actions that benefit China and undermine the US, particularly economically. More Russia hysteria as the bogeyman. Stupid and naive deals with Iran and a cold shoulder to Israel. Much money for various countries around the world, while the US deficit explodes. Open borders and mass immigration from Latin America. Political mismanagement and lawlessness and the growth of real poverty in American cities. Repression toward all political conservatives, particularly those who aligned themselves with Trump.

In short, the real decline of the United States, as a strong and economically powerful country, into a country that is economically weak and politically teetering on civil war.

There will be a 3-month grace period for the new administration, and then the wheels start to come off when all the stimulus money and free money don’t produce any turnaround in the economy and the dismal employment picture.

As things get worse and worse, the radical left-wingers will blame it all on conservatives as Nazis.

Keystone