The Federal Reserve money printing is causing assets like the stock market to behave as if we were in a very healthy and even robust economy, which of course we are not. Don’t make the mistake and think that we are.
Author: Henry Barnard
I am a voracious reader and also enjoy writing. I often have a very different point of view than the popular one. I do see value in debate, and thought it might add to the public debate on controversial issues if I were to express my contrarian opinions. I also started keeping my poems recently (I've written little pieces my whole adult life but never kept any); and I've been a photographer now for over 25 years. So I will be adding an occasional poem and hopefully interesting photograph to the blog along the way, just to spice things up.
Such a Fraud
The election was such a fraud that you are going to see a lot more of these random explosions. Half the country is going to view Biden as illegitimate. Even a high percentage of the Democrats think the election was phony. Nashville is just the beginning.
Me and Prince
Two-Step Strangles
Don’t buy both legs of the strangle at the same time. Whichever side is getting the most stress and therefore volatility, buy that side first. Then wait for mean reversion, and when mean reversion takes place sufficiently, then buy the other side, as its volatility will then be increasing — but wait for a sufficient increase.
Traders who buy both sides of the strangle at the same time are not taking maximum advantage of volatility. If the target asset is going down hard, then the bullish side will have low volatility, so buying the bullish side simultaneously is not optimal. If the target asset is rising sharply, then the bearish side will have low volatility, so buying the bearish side simultaneously is not optimal. If the target asset is not moving much in either direction, neither side will have optimal volatility. So it is NEVER advantageous to buy both sides of the strangle at the same time.
Whichever side you buy first, leg into it instead of buying all the contracts for that side at the same time. If your contract size is, for instance, 2 contracts for each leg, then buy 1 contract first and if the target asset continues in the same direction, buy the second contract at a better strike price than the first. Do the same thing for the other leg. Don’t kid yourself that you “know” how severe a move the target asset will make in either direction. You don’t, no one does.
Climate Change Disagreements
I think the real debate about climate change isn’t whether it is happening and the degree to which humans are causing it — most reasonable people agree about both — but rather what measures should be implemented to address it. There is intense disagreement about these measures.
The most divisive issue has to do with restricting our use of fossil fuels. Radicals would have us do this to a large degree, but conservatives protest this would undermine our economies and lead to hardship and poverty.
Thoughtful conservatives now have the counter argument that the real remedy here has to do with more efficient ways to extract carbon from the atmosphere — through improved soil management on a large scale, planting trees and reforestation, new carbon extraction technologies, etc., i.e., use of fossil fuels becomes a non-issue if you can extract enough carbon from the atmosphere to achieve net equilibrium.
Serenity
Don’t underappreciate calm serenity.
Marcus Aurelius noted that one can retreat into the serene haven of one’s own mind at any time.
We live in an age that dotes on excitement and entertainment, but this perspective may be harmful if taken to the extreme, and may lead one to not appreciate the very real benefits of serenity.
Those who practice some form of meditation have come around to this point of view.
In the long run, which is really more beneficial to you, excitement or peace of mind?
Clueless President
Get ready for 4 years of a clueless president. Will that be better? Watch for the never Trumpers to begin to reconsider their position.
We haven’t had a truly clueless president in quite a while — not since Carter — so we are long overdue.
“Our Planet”
A remarkable, fascinating series on Netflix.
Silence
Never proud in death’s sad embrace,
And when the winds blow and the harsh rains descend,
The soul doth but meekly ascend.
Here but a few moments in fleeting time,
When it is time to go, we do not mend,
As the hourglass comes to its crushing end.
Nothing to say about such a journey…
No soothing comment for who must follow.
Silence — the only reply from the cavernous hollow.
Lunatics in Charge
The looney-tunes unanticipated consequences about to come from a Biden presidency and his “great reset”.
